Loading CalcVerseAI...
Annual average 30-year fixed mortgage rates, Federal Funds Rate, and CPI inflation for every year since 1971. Data sourced from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
6.84%
2025 avg rate
YTD estimate
16.63%
All-time high
1981
2.96%
All-time annual low
2021
7.70%
Historical avg
1971–2025
Annual averages. Weekly intraday peak: 18.45% (Oct 1981). All-time weekly low: 2.65% (Jan 2021).
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). Annual averages. 2025 is year-to-date estimate.
Annual averages. 30-yr rate: Freddie Mac PMMS. Fed Funds: Federal Reserve. Inflation: BLS CPI-U.
| Year | 30-Yr Fixed | Fed Funds Rate | CPI Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025est. | 6.84% | 4.33% | — |
| 2024 | 6.72% | 5.33% | +2.89% |
| 2023 | 6.81% | 5.02% | +4.12% |
| 2022 | 5.34% | 1.68% | +8.00% |
| 2021 | 2.96% | 0.08% | +4.70% |
| 2020 | 3.11% | 0.36% | +1.23% |
| 2019 | 3.94% | 2.16% | +1.81% |
| 2018 | 4.54% | 1.83% | +2.44% |
| 2017 | 3.99% | 1.00% | +2.13% |
| 2016 | 3.65% | 0.40% | +1.26% |
| 2015 | 3.85% | 0.13% | +0.12% |
| 2014 | 4.17% | 0.09% | +1.62% |
| 2013 | 3.98% | 0.11% | +1.46% |
| 2012 | 3.66% | 0.14% | +2.07% |
| 2011 | 4.45% | 0.10% | +3.16% |
| 2010 | 4.69% | 0.18% | +1.64% |
| 2009 | 5.04% | 0.24% | -0.36% |
| 2008 | 6.03% | 1.92% | +3.84% |
| 2007 | 6.34% | 5.02% | +2.85% |
| 2006 | 6.41% | 4.97% | +3.23% |
| 2005 | 5.87% | 3.22% | +3.39% |
| 2004 | 5.84% | 1.35% | +2.68% |
| 2003 | 5.83% | 1.13% | +2.27% |
| 2002 | 6.54% | 1.67% | +1.59% |
| 2001 | 6.97% | 3.89% | +2.83% |
| 2000 | 8.05% | 6.24% | +3.38% |
| 1999 | 7.44% | 5.00% | +2.19% |
| 1998 | 6.94% | 5.35% | +1.55% |
| 1997 | 7.60% | 5.46% | +2.34% |
| 1996 | 7.81% | 5.30% | +2.93% |
| 1995 | 7.93% | 5.83% | +2.81% |
| 1994 | 8.38% | 4.21% | +2.61% |
| 1993 | 7.31% | 3.02% | +2.96% |
| 1992 | 8.39% | 3.52% | +3.02% |
| 1991 | 9.25% | 5.69% | +4.25% |
| 1990 | 10.13% | 8.10% | +5.39% |
| 1989 | 10.32% | 9.21% | +4.83% |
| 1988 | 10.34% | 7.57% | +4.08% |
| 1987 | 10.21% | 6.66% | +3.66% |
| 1986 | 10.19% | 6.80% | +1.86% |
| 1985 | 12.43% | 8.10% | +3.56% |
| 1984 | 13.88% | 10.23% | +4.32% |
| 1983 | 13.24% | 9.09% | +3.22% |
| 1982 | 16.04% | 12.26% | +6.13% |
| 1981 | 16.63% | 16.38% | +10.33% |
| 1980 | 13.74% | 13.35% | +13.55% |
| 1979 | 11.20% | 11.20% | +11.25% |
| 1978 | 9.64% | 7.93% | +7.63% |
| 1977 | 8.85% | 5.54% | +6.50% |
| 1976 | 8.87% | 5.05% | +5.74% |
| 1975 | 9.05% | 5.82% | +9.14% |
| 1974 | 9.19% | 10.51% | +11.06% |
| 1973 | 8.04% | 8.73% | +6.22% |
| 1972 | 7.38% | 4.44% | +3.27% |
| 1971 | 7.54% | 4.66% | +4.29% |
Red = rate ≥ 12%, orange = 8–12%, blue = ≤ 4%. Inflation: red = ≥ 8%, orange = 5–8%, green = deflation.
Click any year for economic context, estimated monthly trend, and affordability comparison.
Color: red ≥12% · orange 8–12% · amber 6–8% · blue ≤4%
9.20%
Avg rate
13.74%
Peak (1980)
7.38%
Low (1972)
Twin oil embargoes (1973, 1979) drove inflation above 11%. Mortgage rates surged from 7.5% to nearly 14% by decade end. Adjustable-rate mortgages were introduced in 1981 partly because of this era.
12.70%
Avg rate
16.63%
Peak (1981)
10.13%
Low (1990)
Fed Chair Paul Volcker hiked the federal funds rate above 20% to break inflation. The 30-year mortgage peaked at 16.63% annually in 1981 — the all-time record. The strategy worked: inflation fell from 14.8% to under 4% by 1983.
8.12%
Avg rate
10.13%
Peak (1990)
6.94%
Low (1998)
Post-Volcker disinflation brought sustained rate declines. Rates dipped below 7% for the first time in 25 years (1998). The decade closed near 8% after the Fed raised rates twice in 1994 to prevent overheating.
6.29%
Avg rate
8.05%
Peak (2000)
5.04%
Low (2009)
Post-9/11 rate cuts drove mortgage rates below 6% and fueled the housing bubble. The 2008 financial crisis collapsed both housing prices and rates. By 2009, rates hit 5% — then considered remarkably low.
4.09%
Avg rate
4.69%
Peak (2010)
3.65%
Low (2016)
The post-GFC zero-rate era kept mortgage rates historically low for a full decade. The 30-year hit an annual low of 3.65% in 2016. Rates briefly rose above 4.5% in 2018 before the Fed pivoted and cut rates again in 2019.
5.30%
Avg rate
6.84%
Peak (2025)
2.96%
Low (2021)
COVID-era stimulus drove rates to the all-time annual low of 2.96% in 2021. Then the fastest Fed tightening cycle since Volcker sent rates above 7.79% by October 2023. The "lock-in effect" froze existing homeowners, crushing housing supply and keeping prices elevated.
The 1981 Peak — Why Rates Hit 16.63%
The early 1980s saw the worst inflation since WWII — peaking at 14.8% in 1980. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker responded with an unprecedented campaign of rate hikes, briefly pushing the fed funds rate above 20%. The 30-year mortgage averaged 16.63% in 1981 (weekly peak: ~18.45% in October). The strategy worked: inflation fell from 14% to 3% by 1983, but the "Volcker Shock" triggered a severe recession and a wave of mortgage defaults.
The 2021 All-Time Low — Why Rates Fell to 2.96%
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted the Fed to cut rates to near-zero and launch massive quantitative easing (bond buying). The Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities directly suppressed mortgage rates. The 30-year averaged 2.96% for the full year 2021, with the weekly record of 2.65% in January 2021. This created a historic refinancing wave and fueled a home price surge of 40%+ in two years.
The 2022–2023 Surge — Fastest Hike Cycle Since Volcker
In March 2022, with inflation at 8.5%, the Fed began the most aggressive rate tightening since the 1980s — hiking from 0.25% to 5.5% in 16 months. The 30-year mortgage surged from 3.1% (start of 2022) to 7.79% by October 2023. The speed of the move created the "lock-in effect": homeowners with 3% mortgages refused to sell, collapsing housing supply and keeping prices high even as rates doubled.
Context for Today — Is 6–7% "High"?
By the raw historical average (7.70% from 1971–2025), today's 6–7% is slightly below normal. But compared to the 2010–2021 era of sub-4% rates, it feels high — especially given that home prices rose 40–70% during those low-rate years. Real affordability (payment as % of income) is near the 1980s levels in many markets. The critical variable is whether the Fed achieves a "soft landing" — if inflation stays near 2–3%, rates could gradually decline toward 5.5–6%.
10-Year Treasury Yield
The 30-year mortgage rate typically runs ~1.7–2.5% above the 10-year US Treasury yield. When bond investors demand higher yields (due to inflation or fiscal concerns), mortgage rates follow.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates, but its federal funds rate and bond-buying (QE/QT) programs heavily influence them. QE — buying MBS — directly lowers mortgage rates.
Inflation Expectations
Lenders demand a premium above expected inflation. When the market expects 3%+ inflation over 10 years, 30-year mortgage rates must stay well above 3% to provide real returns.
Mortgage-Backed Securities Market
Most mortgages are packaged into MBS and sold to investors. When MBS demand rises (e.g., foreign buying), spreads compress and rates fall. When investors require higher yields, rates rise.
Economic Growth & Employment
Strong growth and low unemployment signal inflationary pressure and prompt the Fed to maintain higher rates. Recessions trigger rate cuts as the Fed stimulates borrowing.
Credit Risk & Loan Type
The rates shown are national averages for conforming 30-year fixed loans with 20% down and strong credit. Jumbo loans, FHA/VA loans, and ARMs carry different spreads.
30-year fixed rate: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), published weekly since April 1971. Annual averages computed from 52 weekly readings. PMMS reflects average rates offered by lenders to creditworthy borrowers (≥720 FICO, 20% down, conforming loan limits) nationwide.
Federal Funds Rate: Federal Reserve Bank of New York / FRED database. Annual average of the daily effective federal funds rate.
Inflation (CPI): US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U (All Items, CUUR0000SA0). Year-over-year percentage change in annual average CPI.
2025: Year-to-date estimate based on available weekly PMMS data and FRED federal funds rate data through Q1 2025. Subject to revision.
Use these calculators with today's or historical rates.
Mortgage Calculator
Calculate your monthly payment using current rates
Mortgage Refinance Calculator
See how much refinancing saves at today's rates
Home Affordability Calculator
How much house can you afford at 6–7%?
HELOC Calculator
Calculate home equity line of credit payments
Inflation Data Hub
US CPI inflation history 1913–2024 — the key mortgage rate driver
Investment Calculator
Model investment growth vs paying down your mortgage