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OPEC oil embargo triggers inflation surge
8.04%
Annual avg rate
30-yr fixed
+0.66pp
vs 1972
Year-over-year
8.73%
Fed funds rate
Annual avg
+6.22%
CPI inflation
Year-over-year
Estimated monthly rates based on annual averages and adjacent-year interpolation. Seasonal pattern reflects typical mortgage market spring/summer premium.
The Federal Reserve under Burns began tightening, with the fed funds rate climbing from 5.4% to 11% by year end. The Nixon administration imposed wage and price controls to suppress visible inflation.
CPI surged to 6.2% as the October OPEC oil embargo quadrupled oil prices overnight. This supply shock marked the beginning of the stagflation decade.
Housing starts peaked then fell sharply as mortgage rates rose above 8% and builder confidence collapsed. The combination of rising rates and energy costs sharply reduced affordability.
$2,210/mo
At 1973 rate (8.04%)
Principal + interest only
$1,964/mo
At current rate (6.84%)
Principal + interest only
$246/mo
1973 was more expensive
vs today on same loan