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QE3 announced; new record low of 3.66% annual average
3.66%
Annual avg rate
30-yr fixed
-0.79pp
vs 2011
Year-over-year
0.14%
Fed funds rate
Annual avg
+2.07%
CPI inflation
Year-over-year
Estimated monthly rates based on annual averages and adjacent-year interpolation. Seasonal pattern reflects typical mortgage market spring/summer premium.
The Federal Reserve launched QE3 in September โ an open-ended, unlimited MBS purchase program ($40B/month). This "whatever it takes" approach drove mortgage rates to new record lows. The Fed also introduced explicit calendar guidance (near-zero rates through "at least mid-2015").
CPI rose only 2.1% โ near the Fed's 2% target. Low oil prices and weak wage growth kept inflation well-behaved, giving the Fed unlimited room to ease.
Mortgage rates hit a new record low of 3.66% for the full year. The housing market finally turned โ prices rose 5โ10% nationally. Refinancing activity hit a multi-year peak. Housing became a GDP growth driver for the first time since 2006.
$1,374/mo
At 2012 rate (3.66%)
Principal + interest only
$1,964/mo
At current rate (6.84%)
Principal + interest only
$590/mo
2012 was cheaper
vs today on same loan