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Mortgage rates near 14%; Volcker shock recession
13.74%
Annual avg rate
30-yr fixed
+2.54pp
vs 1979
Year-over-year
13.35%
Fed funds rate
Annual avg
+13.55%
CPI inflation
Year-over-year
Estimated monthly rates based on annual averages and adjacent-year interpolation. Seasonal pattern reflects typical mortgage market spring/summer premium.
The Fed under Volcker allowed the federal funds rate to spike above 20% in March 1980, triggering an immediate recession. The Fed briefly reversed course mid-year under political pressure, then retightened โ creating a unique double-dip policy cycle.
CPI peaked at 14.8% in March โ the highest since World War II. The stagflation crisis reached its apex, with both unemployment and inflation simultaneously elevated.
Mortgage rates averaged 13.74% โ devastating for housing affordability. Housing starts crashed 40% from the 1979 peak. Many buyers simply could not qualify for mortgages, and ARMs became common.
$3,493/mo
At 1980 rate (13.74%)
Principal + interest only
$1,964/mo
At current rate (6.84%)
Principal + interest only
$1,529/mo
1980 was more expensive
vs today on same loan