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Bond market massacre: fastest rate surge in a decade
8.38%
Annual avg rate
30-yr fixed
+1.07pp
vs 1993
Year-over-year
4.21%
Fed funds rate
Annual avg
+2.61%
CPI inflation
Year-over-year
Estimated monthly rates based on annual averages and adjacent-year interpolation. Seasonal pattern reflects typical mortgage market spring/summer premium.
The Federal Reserve under Greenspan doubled the federal funds rate from 3% to 6% in twelve months โ the fastest hiking cycle since the Volcker era. The Fed's stated goal was pre-emptive action against inflation before it materialized.
Consumer prices rose only 2.6%, far below the historical average. The aggressive Fed tightening was pre-emptive, not reactive โ unusual and controversial at the time.
Mortgage rates surged from 7.1% in January to 9.2% by December. The "bond market massacre" halted a multi-year housing recovery. Refinancing activity collapsed. Many ARMs adjusted sharply upward.
$2,281/mo
At 1994 rate (8.38%)
Principal + interest only
$1,964/mo
At current rate (6.84%)
Principal + interest only
$318/mo
1994 was more expensive
vs today on same loan